Romania’s president and the PSD leader are now bedfellows whether they like it or not

After the vote of no-confidence against the government, the political terrain is taking shape like waters receding after a flood: there is huge damage, the home is a mess, and most  good things have disappeared. What was bad before is worse now. Some roll up their sleeves to clean up the mess, but it’s unclear where to start. Others speculate wildly. And for everyone, the costs have skyrocketed.

Floods are a result of natural causes or manmade, and in both situations, the level of damage is made worse by a history of theft and poor disaster management.

At the same time, it is often the custom that regardless the causes of the flood, people are  tempted to deflect blame, so they don’t seem guilty (either because of the origin of the calamity, or what happened afterwards).

In the case of Romania’s political flood on May 5, these are the major faults:

1. It came from a criminal hand.
2. The result was amplified by a poor defensive system and theft.
3. The people behind it are trying to deflect, throwing around the blame, especially on the victims.

But there is a peculiarity to the May 5 political flood: the traces of the culprits are easily  visible, their fingerprints everywhere.

Things even became crystal clear in the 48 hours after the calamity:

1. It quickly became apparent that the PSD (and Nicușor Dan) had bet on an internal coup in the Liberals ( PNL) as the only way to rebuild a majority with PM Ilie Bolojan removed from the game. And Thursday, when Liberal Cătălin Predoiu, in spite of the party’s decision, was still campaigning for the PNL to remain in the alliance with the PSD was another sign in seeing the real reasons for the motion, as well as another sign of increasing desperation in the parties that endorsed the motion.
2. In his post-motion positions, the head of state himself seems unable to recover from the shock of the failure of PNL opting to go into opposition. It is somewhat understandable that President Dan seems destabilized, as he woke up without any “reasonable” solutions, and it is clear that he had not taken into account the hypothesis in which Bolojan would keep control of the Liberals.
3. After the PNL united around Bolojan and the PNL and USR said they would go into opposition, the PSD needs to redo all its calculations. They are no longer aiming for maximum victory, but a minimum defeat as possible. This means a discreet testing of ideas that Grindeanu’s PSDs had initially rejected: the formation of a government around the PSD without the PNL and USR; possibly a minority PSD government (according to sources, on Thursday morning. Digi 24 gave this option of forming a PSD government with AUR or discreetly supported by AUR. On Wednesday, in Gândul, Sorin Grindeanu observed that the PSD and George Simion’s AUR could find common ground on the economic side – a nationalist vision. Grindeanu also stressed he never said that AUR is anti-Western – an interesting detail worth mentioning  because President Nicușor Dan insistently tells us that he will deliver a pro-Western government.

Against the background of the poor solutions that the authors of the motion and their accomplices have at their disposal, it is understandable we are witnessing contradictions or softening of positions that so far were presented as inflexible.

The reason is there is now a dynamic for which the authors and their accomplices prepared for.

That is why we should be reserved about the fact that Nicușor Dan said on several occasions that he ruled out a minority government. Similar statements from the PSD, should also be treated with reservation.

There are at least four reasons for this:

1. Nicușor Dan can no longer easily avoid this formula. And I wrote on Wednesday (link at the end), the scenario of a minority government built around the PSD is increasingly being touted as the least dumb and most realistic of the bad scenarios.
2. Sorin Grindeanu can no longer easily rule out a minority PSD government, without AUR, as PNL and USR are clear they are going into opposition. Then there is the fact that there is pressure on the PSD from the former and current Liberals: the reappointment of Ilie Bolojan as prime minister. Ludovic Orban, ex-liberal, former leader of the PNL, former prime minister and ex-adviser to President Dan came up with this solution as did the leader of the PNL deputies, Gabriel Andronache. In G4Media.ro, journalist Liviu Avram pertinently explained why and how such a solution is constitutionally valid.
3. For PSD and Sorin Grindeanu, as well as for President Nicușor Dan himself, a post-motion situation, in which they would return to a government led by Ilie Bolojan, just weeks after he was dismissed, would be a political and PR disaster from which neither would recover. In the face of such a scenario, any inconvenience derived from the installation of a PSD minority government wouldn’t be such a big deal. Between amputating a limb and letting gangrene kill you, the first option is better especially when you can’t afford to waste time.
4. A minority government around the PSD would be preferable to a majority one, with AUR governing with PSD. It would be preferable for all sides given the bad press the partnership between extremists and socialists on the motion generated. The PSD already has a bad image both among the PSD electorate and among the already extremely disoriented electorate of Nicușor Dan.