After months of machinations and speculation, Romania’s ruling National Liberal Party (as it is officially known) will hold a congress this weekend to decide its next leader.
Current Liberal chairman, Ludovic Orban, a seasoned politician and former premier faces a leadership challenge from Florin Citu, the current prime minister who is a relative newcomer and a Western-educated banker.
Modernized
Mr Citu has weathered a number of storms in his nine months in office including a 20-year-old drink-driving offense in the U.S. He is considered the favorite.
He understands the economy at a crucial period, and has modernized the traditional image of a Romanian prime minister.
The 49-year-old uses rock songs to get his point across, has been known to walk to work, and makes short, pithy statements. He has ironed out earlier gaffes.
Mr Orban, 58, is an old hand in Romanian politics, a policy wonk and a diehard Liberal party member. His long political career goes back to the 1990s.
His appeal stretches across the political spectrum, including among the opposition Social Democrats who are used to working with him. He is also supported by the conservative wing of the Liberals.
Klaus Iohannis
Yet Mr Orban lacks the support of President Klaus Iohannis, the most important political player in Romania.
He is also coming from a defensive position. He was forced to cede the premiership to Mr Citu after a poorer-than-expected result in December 2020 parliamentary elections.
In Europe, the leader of the ruling party leader is normally the prime minister. The Liberals see themselves as part of mainstream Europe, unlike the Social Democrats under ex-boss Liviu Dragnea. The former strongman was sent to prison in May 2019 for a prior case of official misconduct when he was party leader and is now attempting a comeback.
Unpredictability
However, there are elements of unpredictability. Mr Citu lost the support of the junior USR PLUS alliance and now heads a minority government which by definition is weak. This may sway some voters toward his rival.
After the walkout, the minority government now consists of the Liberals and a party called the Union of Democratic Hungarians in Romania which is usually part of any coalition.
Even if Mr Citu is successful, he may face a motion of no-confidence in Parliament which he is not guaranteed to win if the Social Democrats choose to vote against him in order to force early elections.
‘European party’
The Social Democrats would likely do well in snap elections, but would then be likely forced into an alliance with the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, which would harm their image as “a European party.”
A hard winter awaits Romania with soaring energy costs. The Social Democrats may prefer to wait on the sidelines.
Mr. Iohannis, himself a former Liberal Party chairman, has taken sides in the dispute, criticizing USR-PLUS for filing a censure motion against the government they had quit days earlier.
The president is expected to attend Saturday’s congress which will be held in the Romexpo conference center in Bucharest.
Unofficial estimates
Rough, unofficial estimates currently predict that the premier will pick up 3,000 votes, which is about 60% of the votes.
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