Artificial intelligence has turned high speed memory into the most acute bottleneck in today’s digital economy. Industry updates confirm that high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity for 2026 is effectively sold out, with allocation rather than technology now dictating who can scale AI.
As a result, we are moving from the developers to the support companies of the AI boom as main factors for winning the AI race. Even if one is not interested in AI development, this tight supply will make their phones, game consoles or PCs more expensive, eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu..
The race for AI is running into a “memory wall”
Cloud providers and AI chipmakers are racing to secure HBM4, the latest and most advanced generation of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), specifically designed to feed data-hungry AI accelerators and high-performance computing (HPC) processors. And this is pushing the prices up very quickly. A TrendForce analysis reported that conventional DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) contract prices increased by 90% to 95% quarter-on-quarter during the first quarter of 2026, while NAND Flash (a type of non-volatile storage technology that can retain data without a power source) contract prices rose by 55% to 60% over the same period. The research firm subsequently projected a further 58% to 63% increase in DRAM pricing and a 70% to 75% rise in NAND Flash contract prices during the second quarter of 2026.
A seller’s market for three companies
Today’s HBM market is effectively an oligopoly dominated by three companies, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. According to the May 2026 snapshots, SK Hynix is holding roughly 50–62% of global HBM share, Samsung around 25–40% and Micron between 5–20% depending on product mix and customer. According to Counterpoint research, in Q1 2026, the market share was 58% SK Hynix and 21% Samsung and Micron. In practice, this means that a handful of Korean and US fabs now control the pace at which AI data centers can be populated with computing hardware. SK Hynix has signaled that its HBM, DRAM and NAND capacity for 2026 is “essentially sold out”, while Samsung and Micron report similarly tight conditions.
In fact, Micron’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has confirmed that the company’s entire HBM4 capacity for 2026 is pre-sold, and even so, they can only serve 50% to 65% of the mid-term demand from key customers. Samsung, for its part, has warned that AI‑driven memory shortages will keep prices elevated across the electronics industry at least through 2027, as it shifts more wafers into higher‑margin HBM. SK Hynix, the technology leader in HBM3E and early HBM4, is using record profits for development and to lock in long‑term contracts, targeting a combined 80% HBM share alongside Samsung. HBM production for AI accelerators consumes approximately three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per gigabyte, according to a Micron executive, forcing memory makers to reallocate production away from consumer to enterprise products. To focus on enterprise clients, Micron closed its consumer business in February this year. This shows that memory supply, not silicon design, might be the binding constraint for AI infrastructure through at least 2027.
More AI, more expensive consumer electronics
For consumers, this squeeze translates into more expensive smartphones, game consoles, and PCs. According to IDC, the cost structure of a smartphone is heavily dependent on the memory used. For a mid-range device, memory can represent 15-20% of the total bill of materials (BOM), while for a high-end flagship device, it is around 10-15%. As memory prices continue to surge, mobile phone manufacturers will likely have to raise prices significantly, cut specifications, or both. If the smartphone market is facing pressure, the PC market is bracing for disruption. PC vendors are signaling broad price increases as cost pressures intensify into H2 2026. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have warned clients of tougher conditions ahead, confirming 15-20% hikes and contract resets as an industry-wide response.
For investors, it underpins an almost 4 trillion‑dollar stock market valuation across the three memory champions as of early June. In the age of AI, the critical scarce resource is no longer only computing, but the ultra‑fast memory that keeps those chips fed, and Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung continue to capitalize on the extensive demand and tight supply.
Bogdan Maioreanu, eToro analyst and markets commentator, has over 20 years of experience in financial services and investments, as well as a strong background in journalism. He held various Corporate Banking management positions at Raiffeisen Bank and OTP Bank before moving into business consultancy roles with IBM Romania, among others. Bogdan is an Executive MBA from Asebuss and Washington University.
