Geopolitically and politically, Trump’s capture of Nicholas Maduro appears to have the potential to deal a major blow to Latin America and Europe more than Russia and China.
Even if Moscow and Beijing did not escape unscathed by the shock produced by Washington in Caracas, a few things are now certain:
- The Putin and Xi regimes have already benefited from Trump’s legitimizing their preference for violating international law, reviving the politics of spheres of influence, transforming the intimidation of neighbors into state policy and pursuing a revisionist agenda.
- The Putin and Xi regimes have not had much to lose by the capture of their client, Maduro, as Trump’s announced long-term plans (seizing Venezuelan oil, taking full control of Venezuela, and thereby depriving the Russians and Chinese of access to vast resources and a solid presence in the area) are still far from being realized. We are at an early stage and the way the White House imagined that it can remotely rule Venezuela is neither clear nor guaranteed to work on the ground. When you think you will do business with the mafiosi (the Maduro cronies you must also expect the mafiosi to trick you. And in Venezuela, the Trump administration has no reason to do this kind of business with anyone else, such as the oppressed Venezuelan people and their legitimate representatives (the widely recognized democratic opposition), since it probably understands too well that this type of “partner” will at least be reluctant to give away the country’s sovereignty. And if Trump can’t dispose of Venezuela’s sovereignty to his heart’s content, then he can’t confiscate, as planned, Venezuelan oil to place it in the hands of American oil companies. As such, the U.S. president’s home scenario is at serious risk of failure once it goes into operation. And if things turn out this way, the Russians and Chinese will easily see the worst-case scenario for them. In any case, Moscow and Beijing still have time to regroup.
But the layer of certainties does not end here.
It is already clear that the anti-Maduro operation is being exploited by the White House as a lever for the political shaking up of Latin America and Europe, in perfect accordance with the provisions of the recently published US Security Strategy.
- Latin America was already experiencing a revival of the right and the far right and Trump and MAGA were already extremely present in the area and extremely involved in channeling and catalyzing change. In the wake of the operation in Venezuela, the statements of Trump and other members of his cabinet have indicated a temptation to undermine other regimes – Cuba, Colombia (and others). Before the Caracas operation, the American leader had pardoned the former president of Honduras, although the American justice had sentenced him to 45 years in prison precisely for involvement in drug trafficking (this shows us once again what a blatant lie had been the pretext for the anti-drug fight in the overthrow of Maduro). Moreover, Trump had pardoned the former president of Honduras just before crucial elections in that country, and MAGA-Trump had chosen his side. So, until the Russians and Chinese start losing, the Latin Americans have already begun to lose instead, through the instability the White House has brought to their continent.
- Also in the wake of Trump’s maneuvers in Venezuela, Europe is another victim waiting in the wings. Again, before Putin and Xi start to lose, the pair have just started to gain a lot. And this is not only through the indirect benefits that I mentioned in point 1, but also through the extrapolation made by Trump the other day from Venezuela to Greenland. Not only does the American leader shake Europe ‘the old continent’ by stating that he will deal with Greenland and even giving a deadline of two months – but his intention could be dangerously harmful to NATO, because Denmark, a NATO member state, is directly targeted by the most powerful NATO member, the USA. And all the other NATO members are thus targeted at the same time. Donald Trump is on the verge of creating an impossible situation within the alliance and does so at a time when Russia’s war is raging in Ukraine, a country bordering NATO member states. The scenario of the war spreading (possibly even to NATO allies) can no longer be ruled out. From the Venezuela operation, up to the potential instability of NATO, it becomes difficult to understand why Trump says the operation would hit the Russians hard. Moscow has so much to gain and many potential dividends, that it can’t be excluded that the Kremlin will rub its hands in glee processing the events triggered by Trump starting from the palace where Maduro was caught.
With each hour and day that passes since the night of January 3, it becomes increasingly apparent that, before we waste our time imagining what Trump wants and what he can do with Venezuela, it would be wiser and we also account for the massive damage he has already caused primarily to the traditional and strategic allies of the United States.
For while the losses of Russia and China remain only in the realm of the potential and cannot yet be properly assessed, the losses of America’s European allies are increasingly palpable and threaten to rapidly increase in number and size.
This difference, in itself, indicates a net gain made by Moscow and Beijing from Washington’s adventure in Caracas. But the toll of the blow received by US allies is not likely to be limited to that.
History will undoubtedly record a “before” and a “after” Venezuela-Maduro.
- PS: Trump’s implausible threat to the Europeans, via Greenland, has as much to do with the officially invoked pretext (US national security) as the officially invoked pretext (the fight against drugs) had to do with the capture of Maduro. Via Greenland, Trump is forcing the destabilization of NATO, and for this we can identify at least three reasons.
- One would be Trump’s sincere and long-expressed hostility to NATO.
- The second would be that the destabilization of NATO would also translate into weakening the cohesion between Europeans, and this would benefit the extremist parties on the continent. Extremist parties that are on the rise, are generally hostile to NATO and subservient to Putin and Trump. Extremist parties that, in the US security strategy, endorsed by Trump, are presented as “patriotic parties”, and the Trump administration has never hidden his intention to help them take power everywhere in Europe.
- The third reason would be that by destabilizing NATO, Trump can thus serve Putin. Let’s not forget, one of the flagship elements on Russia’s agenda in the peace negotiations with America, on the subject of Ukraine, is represented by the resolution of ‘the original problems,’ as Moscow calls them. One of these is NATO’s footprint in Europe. Putin not only does not want to see NATO expand further, but he wants to reverse the expansions made over the past 30 years. Trump just seems to be giving a serious push in the direction of this Russian desire.
- And it all started with the Hollywood-style capture of a dictator from a distant country, by a president who imagines himself a king, a fan of action movies and generally obsessed with TV and showing off his power on TV.
Toppling Maduro and Threatening Iran Are One Thing – “Accessing Venezuela’s Oil” Quite Another
