And finally, there are some positive signs
A few days ago, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas called on Hamas to reach a deal to free its Israeli hostages in order to spare Gaza additional death and destruction by Israeli forces. On Sunday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shameh Shoukry called Hamas “outside the Palestinian consensus” and said its accumulation of power at the expense of “peace-loving factions” should be investigated. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken now says ‘virtually every Arab country’ wants ties with Israel.
What’s going on? Could the darkest moment the Middle East has seen in some time (the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre and the Gaza war) really be coming before a sort of dawn? Could it be that Arab leaders read Ask Questions Later, where I argued a week ago that regional pressure on Hamas to surrender is the right and necessary thing?
There are complications, of course. All this good karma is predicated on an Israeli willingness to allow the PA to restore its rule in post-Hamas Gaza, and to accept a process meant to lead to Palestinian independence. Israel’s breathtakingly unwise prime minister blocks this at present. And yet it is a form of progress.
This is surprising because we are not accustomed to pragmatism from the Arab world, which has spent almost a century indoctrinating its people against Jews.
Some years ago I confronted Arab League then-Secretary-General Amr Moussa with the UN’s Human Development report on the Arab world showing the Middle East either last or next to last in the world in categories like infant mortality, female participation in the workforce and scientific publications. “We will never have progress in the region until we resolve the question of justice for the Palestinians,” he replied (we moved on to Egyptian politics in this interview).
Arab leaders should show some leadership because the benefits to the entire region of removing Hamas from the equation and clearing the way for peace would be huge. Such a setback for Iran, which backs Hamas, and its other proxies would boost the chances that Israel might reach a two-state accommodation with the Palestinians that the Arab world can live with, removing the last obstacle to regional normalization and true economic and cultural integration.
Saudi Arabia, for instance, could finally join the Abraham Accords, yielding vital economic synergy with Israel and a US security umbrella against its rival Iran, which Riyadh blames for the bombing of its oil fields in 2019 and for backing the Houthis in Yemen. It would end the pariah status of its effective ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Riyadh also seeks Israeli defense capabilities for defense of its oil fields, as well as Israeli innovation to help it move past dependence on the crude oil it exports.
Egypt’s economy has been battered by the Houthis’ impeding of sea traffic to the Suez Canal over Gaza, reflecting the contagion of regional instability. The removal of Hamas would likely dial down these hostilities, along with threats from Cairo to end its 45 year-old peace treaty with Israel over the Gaza crisis. Israel and Egypt need to get back on track, more for the latter than the former. Increased bilateral cooperation, particularly in energy and trade, would lift a per capita GDP that is about a tenth of Israel’s – about $4,300/year. Current bilateral trade stands at just $300 million per year; a plan to more than double that figure by 2025 was released last May, but remains in doubt as long as Hamas and Israel remain at war. An end to the Gaza nightmare would also alleviate Egypt’s fear that millions of Gazans might flee into the Sinai desert, with Hamas operatives among them strengthening existing jihadi radicals.
Jordan’s situation post-Oct. 7 is particularly dire, because its population mostly is Palestinian-descended. In the poll, Jordan’s respondents were the most pessimistic in the entire region, with 71% saying they have “become convinced there is no possibility” of peace with Israel – even though their country signed a peace treaty in 1994. Jordan’s jittery Hashemite dynasty knows that the wars that Hamas foments radicalizes this population, feeding instability and spreading jihadist ideology that is anathema to the Western-oriented leadership. requiring constant counter-terrorism vigilance.
Jordan needs its peace treaty with Israel for the security guarantees Jerusalem quietly provides, but it fears this population. Getting rid of Hamas and the discourse it promotes might calm them – and also enable the benefits of increased economic cooperation with Israel on issues such as water management, tourism, agro-tech and more.
Lebanon, which is almost occupied by the Iranian proxy Hezbollah, would benefit mightily from the eradication of the other Iranian proxy, Hamas. Anti-jihadi momentum and a weaker Iran might compel Hezbollah to agree to pull back from the Israeli border, stop provoking the neighbor to the south, and perhaps even loosen its grip on the country. Lebanon’s Christian leadership signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1982 only to see the early version of Hezbollah end it by assassinating the president. The country’s economy today is near collapse – and peace with Israel would be more important than ever.
