2024 could be very interesting indeed
Every new year brings with it opportunities and perils. We hope for the best, should plan for the worst, and focus on the knowledge that the essential things rarely change. But with all that factored in, strap in for a 2024 that could be very interesting indeed.
The most obvious danger in 2024 is contagion and fallout from the Israel-Hamas war, which could be coming to a 401(k) near you.
Already, Yemen’s Houthis have committed a major outrage by messing with access to the Suez Canal. Although they say they will only target ships bound for Israel, they have fired more than 100 drones and missiles at ships linked to over 35 countries. This has forced a substantial amount of major shipping to circumnavigate Africa, and the Americans to pull together a task force that may end up attacking the militant group, as they richly deserve.
The Red Sea lane that the Houthis have upended, via the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, affects about an eighth of the world’s maritime trade, including over 20 percent of global container volumes. This could hinder supply chains and drive up oil prices, insurance costs and shipping fees, causing a spike in prices in general.
The war, obviously, could also spread north of Israel to Lebanon, where Hezbollah, which like the Houthis is a proxy of the malicious and criminal regime in Iran, is operating as a militia that has a country. The group’s shelling of Israel has caused the evacuation of about 100,000 people, and Israel can soon be expected to either attack it in earnest or insist on the enforcement of the 16-year-old UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ordering Hezbollah to pull back from the border.
It is only because Israel has learned the lesson of Napoleon’s struggles with two fronts that it has not done so already. After all, Israel is already knee-deep in a war to the finish with Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
But patience is wearing thin. If the result is a full-scale war in which Israel is targeted by the tens of thousands of powerful Iranian-made rockets in the hands of Hezbollah, the US and Iran could be dragged into it as well. Iran could block the Persian Gulf (which accounts for about a fifth of the oil traded at sea), bringing more global economic disruption. And poor Lebanon, which cannot get it together enough to appoint a military chief or a president, which is saddled with about 1.5 million Syrian refugees, and which continues to mistreat its Palestinians, will not fare well.
Meanwhile, if Russian President Vladimir Putin concludes that the world is sufficiently distracted by this Middle East mayhem, he could be tempted to ratchet up his war with Ukraine, especially after that country’s mid-2023 counter-offensive fizzled. If he launches the full might of Russia’s army against Kyiv, the world and the United States will be facing very difficult choices about potential war with a nuclear power run by a potential psychopath.
And if the West abandons Ukraine, assume China will be tempted to attack Taiwan. Its well-entrenched nationalist leader Xi Jinping has been ramping up the rhetoric on that front, and while the United States does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country, it has committed publicly to defend it from attack.
Only the US and Russia have more nuclear warheads than China, which has an arsenal of about 500. And if China did somehow end up controlling Taiwan, it would also control the world’s most important provider of semiconductors.
Which leads us to peril number two: Donald Trump might actually end up back in the White House.
All the above rattles the prospects of President Biden, especially the Gaza war. His support for Israel’s brutal response to one of history’s most barbaric terrorist attacks on Oct. 7 has him in hot water with progressives, young people, and Muslims who are critical in the crucial swing state of Michigan.
A world in crisis and spiraling inflation—especially if accompanied by spikes in migration and terrorism—could easily end up assisting the ridiculous Trump. In last week’s Christmas message (below), Trump suggests a bizarre new hatred for electric cars and asserts that his US opponents are more “evil” and “sick” that Vladimir Putin or other global criminals, hoping that they should “rot in hell.” This and more, with the usual idiocy of capitalizing nouns (he calls his tormentor, Special Counsel Jack Smith, “the out of control Lunatic”).
The danger of a Trump return (and the insanity that it is even conceivable) should not underestimated given the epic damage of his first term, when he took America several steps toward being a banana republic in which people have no faith in the democratic process. The stunt he pulled in trying to overturn the 2020 election was the rare case of something that was both predictable and shocking; it was Venezuela or Belarus territory, a genuine disgrace.
Trump openly loves the world’s dictators and aspires to be one. He coddled anti-democratic rulers, tried to use the presidency to enrich himself, was impeached for shaking down Ukraine for dirt on Joe Biden and then for egging on a violent mob to attack the US Capitol on Jan. 6. His blatant nepotism, his myriad scams, his hush money to a porn star, his almost 100 indictments—none of it is remotely reasonable. Many politicians deceive, Trump is his own pathology.
Of course, a Republican return would also bring back heartless and horrible policies most Americans oppose: abortion ban talk, more tax cuts for the rich, more climate denial, more attempts to deny people health care, more delays in enacting critically needed gun control, and on and on. But the main thing is that Trump will again alienate America’s allies and trash America’s brand as he takes steps to rule as an authoritarian to whatever degree the system will allow.
Lurking in the background, though, is something even deeper than the vagaries and vulgarities of politics and war. We are looking at a potential sea change in the very nature of work, because of artificial intelligence. 2024 could be the year that this starts really freaking people out.
The issue exploded onto the world stage in November 2022 with the public release of ChatGPT. This caused many people to start to appreciate that the machine is displaying a mind of its own (more than some humans, it must be said) — and that this is a problem.
AI can replace many of the while collar functions that have enabled non-geniuses with a bit of education to bring home the bacon. Accountants, journalists, academics, advertising copywriters, researchers—functions both prosaic and creative can be performed reasonably well and this will only increase.
But the real drama came a few months ago when OpenAI’s board attempted to defenestrate the CEO, Sam Altman, only to find him returning days later with the board itself overhauled in the wake of a worker revolt.
The upshot is victory for those in the AI community who oppose regulation of the technology and who want to proceed with advancements and implementations without regard for the impact on employment or society.
This, even though Altman himself told Congress that AI could be used to manipulate voters and target disinformation. He had even joined hundreds of top AI scientists, researchers, and business leaders in signing a letter stating: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
According to estimates, 300 million jobs could be in danger from AI. This could happen much faster than the pace at which people can be retrained. Start getting used to discussion of a universal basic income—essentially welfare paid to people who have no hope of getting jobs—probably funded by taxing tech.
As a result, the ranks of the new Luddites are swelling. Terrorism against big tech cannot be ruled out. You want a work-life balance? You may need to settle for one of the two.
