Russia’s naval war fleet, its air forces, missiles, ground troops, arsenal, weapons factories, military radars, espionage and human infrastructure, and hybrid warfare materials – all these will come dangerously close to Romanian and Moldovan territory practically overnight.
The multi-dimensional threat of revisionism will hover over the region as never it has never before in the last hundred years. Romania risks being caught in the foreseeable future in a series of potential armed conflicts with its neighbors and/or between its neighbors.
Overnight, practically, tensions with Hungary will rise from the current deceptive state of inertia.
Overnight, extremist forces in Bucharest, goaded on by Russia, could push Romania into the not unlikely scenario of making territorial claims on Ukraine. These seeds already exist in the sovereignist-Putin wing (AUR-POT-SOS-Călin Georgescu), but if Ukraine is dismembered to Putin’s liking and according to Trump’s plans, the seeds will certainly sprout.
With a smaller and more divided Ukraine, with a larger more confident Russia, more sure of itself and closer to us, with an America that guarantees Russian supremacy, that distances itself from its European allies, that tries to dismantle the EU and that undermines the unity and effectiveness of NATO, it will become a matter of time, a very short time, until the entire Euro-Atlantic security umbrella, which had irreproachably protected Romania, will be called into question and dismantled brick by brick.
From west to east and north to south, Romania will see its territory under threats which are unimaginable to the younger generations, yet so familiar if we look at history, and impossible to handle without heartbreaking, polarizing and burdensome compromises. For Romania, nothing will be the same again. And nothing will be the same for Europe in general.
Higher poverty, insecurity, instability, a new state of vassalage towards Russia – this is what is reserved for Romanians, these are Romania’s prospects if the peace plan designed by the Trump administration for Ukraine is not resolutely rejected.
For the moment, the Americans are hellishly pressuring Ukraine and Europe to accept it. For now, Trump’s pro-Russian offensive faces major obstacles from both Kyiv and major European capitals taking part in the restricted talks with the Americans.
But the big question is to what extent Europeans (including Romanians) will have the will, the courage, the unity, and especially the vision necessary to remain uninterrupted and convincing on their positions.
Never since the dismemberment of Greater Romania by the Soviets, 85 years ago, and then when the communists came to power, also by Soviet tanks, 80 years ago, has Romania experienced such an existential danger to its territorial integrity, sovereignty and stability, as now, when Trump’s America is pressuring the entire European continent to accept peace in Ukraine on the terms of Putin, the Russian predator.
The political forces in Bucharest and the local public figures who today promote Trumpism and Putinism represent, in this context, the contemporary version of the Fifth Column.
As a lethal irony of fate, these internal pioneers of external enemies gained ground among the electorate by promoting sovereignty, patriotism, ancestral values, wrapping themselves in the national flag, wearing the national costume, leeching on religious symbols, lobbying with miserable hypocrisy for peace.
Any politician, political party or public figure in this country who still promotes Russia’s narrative, the MAGA narrative, Putin’s image, Trump’s image will automatically be complicit in any of the potential misfortunes that will befall Romania if Romania and the rest of Europe are unable to reject Trump’s plan designed for Putin’s lust for power and Trump’s laurels.
A national tragedy coupled with a European tragedy is now on the verge of taking wings, thanks to the Ribbentrop-Molotov/Hitler-Stalin synergy between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
If those on the Trumpist-Putinist menu do not overturn the table, no one and nothing will save them.
In Romania, a country less than two weeks away from a crucial presidential election, any other campaign theme should pale in front of the peace deal in Ukraine, promoted by Trump to serve Putin.
Because in a country where the population overwhelmingly wants to remain under the NATO umbrella and the EU umbrella, it is vital that everyone is aware of the fact that the Trump-Putin agreement on Ukraine not only threatens the existence of NATO and the existence of the EU, but also threatens the very existence of Romania as we know it, that Romania in which we were born, where we grew up, where we buried our grandparents, where we imagined until now that we would be buried too.
- PS: Of course, according to the good habit of history, nothing that happens today was unforeseen and unstoppable in time. I wrote about “What a Russian victory would mean for Orban’s Hungary’s aspirations vis-à-vis Transylvania”, as well as about “The Trump Danger for Transylvania”, I wrote again two months ago, I wrote again two months ago, I also wrote in this interval, others have written or explained, of course, – from Romania and abroad.
