President Donald Trump’s expanded steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect on March 12, 2025, have sent shockwaves through global markets.
These measures imposed a 25% duty on all steel imports and increased aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25%, removing country exemptions and extending to numerous downstream products.
In response, Canada and the European Union have announced new tariffs on US goods worth billions of dollars, stoking fears of a global trade war, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu. .
Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum are meant to revitalize the US industry. Steel Production in the United States averaged 7.78 million tonnes per month from 1969 until 2025, reaching an all time high of almost 12 million tonnes in 1973 and a record low of 3.8 million tonnes in 2009. The recent peak was 7.5 million tonnes in July 2021. But from 2021 the production decreased to 6.6 million tonnes in January this year. Bringing back the US steel industry to its ‘70s level is difficult as barriers of entry are very high and rebuilding the facilities might take a long time.
The US import tariffs will affect large exporters to the US like Germany. In 2023, its total exports to the US exceeded 157 billion dollars but the steel and iron exports including products were around 3 billion dollars. Romania will also experience effects from these tariffs. With steel exports to the US valued at approximately $500 million annually, the 25% tariffs will deepen the crisis of Romania’s steel industry, reducing margins ever further. Romanian iron and stainless steel exports represent almost 14% of the country’s total exports to the US.
The largest producer of steel in the world is China amounting to about 54% of total global production, followed by India and Japan. The United States is fourth followed closely by Russia and in 6th place is South Korea. But if we look at total production of EU countries in 2024 this amounts to 129.5 million tonnes, much more than the US production of 79 million tonnes. The largest European Union and 7th largest steel producer in the world is Germany, whose production rose by over 5% in 2024 while the US production decreased by almost 2.5%.
While China faces a combined 45% tariff due to an existing 20% blanket levy on Chinese goods, its state-driven overproduction—generating more steel and aluminum than the rest of the world combined—continues to distort global markets.
The current tariffs might help the sellers of steel, especially the ones with production facilities in the US. Some European manufacturers like the Swedish SSAB and the Spanish Acerinox and Asian manufacturers such as Australia’s BlueScope and Japan’s Yamato Kogyo might benefit as competition from imports to the US will ease.
But the consensus among the major research houses seems to be that US steel tariffs are likely to hurt US steel consumers more than they’ll hurt global steel producers. A recent Goldman Sachs report considers that US domestic steel prices could rise by the full 25% tariff amount once destocking completes over the next three months. As a result, several industries might be affected, with the automotive one being most impacted by the squeeze of the margins. The construction and manufacturing sectors might also be affected, with an impact on overall inflation.
We have seen this scenario before. The previous Trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018 led to U.S. steel prices rising by 5% in the month after tariffs first went into effect, with aluminum rising 10%, a Reuters analysis showed. While metal production was ramped up, other sectors were slowed down by the trade war as overall higher prices meant higher input costs for sectors like manufacturing, construction and transportation — major sources of demand for these metals. Investors are bracing for impact and are trying to assess how much history will repeat itself.
