Extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency due to climate change, affect different regions of the planet at different levels, as well as the adaptability of local societies. This begs the question: where would we feel the effects of climate change the least? Based on a global adaptation index, Romania ranks 79th in terms of vulnerability) and 84th in terms of preparedness, out of 182 countries analyzed, according to an Infoclima report. According to the report, Transylvania and the Carpathian Mountains could be the regions where we would feel the effects of climate change the least.
The ND-GAIN Country Index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges, combined with its willingness to improve its resilience. Its aim is to help governments, businesses and communities better prioritise investments for a more effective response to the immediate global challenges ahead.
According to the report, vulnerability measures a country’s exposure, sensitivity and ability to adapt to the negative impact of climate change. ND-GAIN measures global vulnerability by taking into account vulnerabilities in six sectors essential for life – food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat and infrastructure, while preparedness measures a country’s ability to mobilize investments and turn them into adaptation actions. ND-GAIN measures the overall level of readiness by taking into account three components – economic readiness, governance readiness and social readiness.
“Based on the adaptation index of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, Romania ranks 79th (vulnerability) and 84th (readiness) out of 182 countries analyzed. Neighbors Hungary are in 47th place, while Austria is in 10th place. The differences are very large for three European countries separated by only a few hundred kilometers apart,” Infoclima said.
In an interview, the researchers answered the question – what is the safest place on Earth in terms of the climate crisis?
“Their answers were surprising. Most people’s first reaction to this question would be to consider the climate effects – such as rising sea levels, floods, wildfires, heat waves and droughts – and where they are least likely to occur. The current, predictable availability of natural resources such as freshwater is also important, so geographical location is not a negligible issue. According to the researchers, the Great Lakes region is the most promising on the North American continent. But the real answer depends on what people in a particular place – and society as a whole – are doing to address climate change. The safest place is where there is a conscious effort to mitigate climate change and build resilient societies and settlements with the help of strong policies,” Infoclima mentions.
What does a “climate safe” place mean?
In the case of climate, the safest regions geographically would be those with mild weather where periods of such weather (with a daily maximum between 18-30 degrees, for example) are frequent and where the risk of extreme weather events is low. According to specialists, there are significant regional differences in the frequency with which extreme weather events occur, such as hurricanes, forest fires, heat waves, flash floods – results of climate change.
“Although we in the heart of Europe are not as prepared for tornadoes as many American residents, in June 2021 several people died and tens of thousands were left without power due to a devastating tornado in the Czech Republic, so what ‘awaits us’ is an important question. Forest fires are not a new phenomenon in the Mediterranean region, but in August 2021 they had a thermal intensity four times higher than the previous record. In Romania, the frequency of long-lasting and dangerously hot heat waves is increasing, while heated winters represent a risk for agriculture and we are not exempt from the damage caused by lack of water and surplus water,” Infoclima specialists say.
It is also important that the location is “well above sea level” to be safe.
“Although the effects of climate change are visible every day in our country, sea level rise does not pose a direct threat to the Carpathian Basin. On the other hand, in the case of the city of Venice, the Netherlands or small island countries, for example, adaptation is inevitable. In some cases, it is no longer possible to find a solution locally, and the only option is to emigrate,” the specialists explain.
In addition to geographical characteristics, many other factors determine how affected a region is by the climate crisis and what opportunities are available for adaptation. The social and economic impact also significantly influences the extent to which basic human needs, such as access to clean drinking water, are met. Moreover, in the globalised world, problems far from where we live can affect, for example, the secure food supply.
On paper, these countries are in a better position
Geographically, some regions undoubtedly have advantages in terms of the severity of climate change. According to a study published in the journal Sustainability, New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ireland start from the best place according to geographical location. The research took into account the “transport capacity” of the given country, i.e. the proportion of agricultural land in relation to the population or whether citizens have access to the sea. Another important aspect was how insulated a country is from the effects of the economic and social instability of neighboring countries, as well as from the potential of renewable energy, which is an important measure of energy independence.
In addition to the fact that some regions start with geographical advantages in terms of the severity of climate change, the possibilities and actual steps for mitigation and adaptation are decisive in the issue of climate security. Thus, in this respect, the Danes, the Swedes, the Norwegians and the British are in the lead. When calculating the climate change performance index, the results achieved in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, introducing renewable energies and their energy-efficient use, as well as introducing green policies must be taken into account.
Climate projections for Romania
It is difficult to predict how certain regions in Romania will be affected by climate change, but there are still, according to climatologists, a number of factors that can be taken into account when assessing the potential impact of climate change on different regions in Romania.
“We know that climate change can lead to sea level rise, thus increasing the risk of flooding and leading to erosion in coastal areas. As a result, regions and cities along the Black Sea coast, such as Constanta, may be vulnerable to sea level rise. The change in the rainfall regime can influence the availability of water. Some regions, such as the Danube basin, may be more susceptible to changes in water resources because both precipitation and the amounts of water resulting from melting snow change,” the specialists explain.
According to them, an important impact of climate change is on agriculture, and in this case, the regions with diversified agricultural practices in Banat and Moldova are better positioned to cope with changing conditions.
“For the region of Moldova, it is anticipated that the number of storms with large hail and those that produce intense wind will increase. This increase will be observed for the entire territory of Romania, but the north-eastern region of Romania will potentially register the highest growth. For the southern region of Romania, an increase in the number, duration and intensity of heat waves is projected,” Infoclima specialists show.
According to the same source, climate projections indicate Oltenia, Muntenia, and Dobrogea as regions where “more frequent and severe droughts” will be observed.
“This means that Transylvania and the Carpathian Mountains, regions where climate projections indicate milder temperatures compared to low-lying areas, could be the regions where we will feel the effects of climate change the least. It is important to note that these are general considerations based on climate projections, but local factors such as infrastructure, socio-economic conditions and urban planning should also be taken into account when deciding where to live.
Most Romanian respondents consider climate adaptation a national priority, EIB survey shows
