As expected, Romanian inflation slowed in August

Inflation dropped to 5.1% in August, with the trend  likely to continue into this autumn, although  higher-than-expected food prices and service inflation mean the National Bank of Romania can’t claim inflation has been beaten yet.
August inflation in Romania saw food inflation advancing by 0.3% versus the previous month, with some items such as vegetables and potatoes posting price increases against what would have normally been pretty steep seasonal price drops.

In annual terms, food prices accelerated to 4.2% in August, from July’s low of 1.7%, ING Bank reported Wednesday.

However, the higher food prices have been largely offset by lower-than-expected non-food prices, driven mainly by cheaper fuel and a lower-than-expected electricity price increase.

The annual acceleration of non-food prices slowed to 4.3% in August, from 6.9% the previous month.

The monthly service price slightly decelerated in August to 0.5% versus 0.7% in July, but that was an actual acceleration in annual terms from 8.5% in July to 8.6% in August, the bank said.

What does the data mean for the National Bank of Romania?

The latest figures are unlikely to change the central bank’s policy decisions and the general disinflationary trend is largely on track.

ING said it maintains it year-end estimate at 4.2%, versus the National Bank’s 4.0%.

Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. It’s used to describe occasions when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.

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