We are witnessing a historic moment in the relationship between the European allies of the US and the Trump administration: as never before, the leader in Washington is simply sent packing, despite insisting.
As never before, Donald Trump is put in the situation of insisting, of repeating his appeals mixed with threats, pseudo-requests mixed with reprimands. But to no effect!
This detail should not go unnoticed, given the fact that Donald Trump, who is used to being in command, has seen himself making desperate to European naval forces to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has started a full-scale war without taking into account the fact that the enemy will respond by resorting to the most powerful weapon the enemy has at his disposal –the flow of fuel through the Strait of Hormuz. And he did so despite the fact that the “Hormuz gun”, unlike other weapons, was in plain sight.
By doing so, Donald Trump ensured that he would remain in universal memory as the dumbest president in US history.
In almost five decades of existence of the Islamic republic, none of the predecessors of Trump 2, in the White House (including Trump 1), have ventured to solve the Iranian file by way of total war.
Quite a few of Trump’s predecessors hadn’t really been scaredy cats when it came to war, in general — but they cleverly they were scaredy cats when it came to the case of Iran.
So that the world does not somehow believe that Trump’s inanity is just an accident, the current US president pointed this out himself, in his second step.
How? Through public claims, other states now assume a double risk:
- To contribute, through their own armed adventure, to prolong the conflict, instead of doing everything to shorten it. And to shorten it, the primary condition is that the weapons are silent, the military maneuvers moving to zero.
- To expose their own nations to the risk of loss of human lives and that’s just to help the dumbest president of the United States seem if not smarter, then at least not the only dumb one.
The asymmetrical nature of the Iranian response has made all US allies, which host US troops and bases, potential targets (including Romania of course).
This element in itself adds an additional obstacle to Trump’s desire for them to come to his aid.
For his European allies, even if they wanted to take irrational risks, they would still not be able to engage militarily in an effort to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
These three elements speak for themselves:
- There are numerous potential non-American targets in any places (The U.S. has many allies and they have their own interests in multiple directions).
- U.S. allies have relatively modest or at least insufficient military capabilities to meet their needs, which is why they attach vital importance to collective defense. That’s why U.S. allies are in Europe and part of various regional and intercontinental security architectures. This then becomes a third layer of President Trump’s recklessness in approaching the Iranian file: because US allies simply do not have enough resources to deploy them where Trump wants, even if, in extremis, they would be willing to get involved. Trump foolishly ignored this variable.
- Iran, although heavily weakened by U.S.-Israeli attacks, is still capable of projecting force over long distances – through ballistic missiles and drones. So U.S. allies are already exposed to Iranian retaliation even without being present in the geographic proximity of the ongoing conflict.
Taken together, points 1, 2 and 3 reveal show a reality that has nothing in common with the confused imagination and limited intellect of the unfortunate leader in Washington.
But Trump’s recklessness, demonstrated by this war with Iran, continues to assert itself fully elsewhere.
- It feeds the narratives of the traditional US rivals – Russia, China, North Korea, of course and Iran – for whom the relationship and strategic partnerships with the US represent, for the states of Europe and Asia, a vulnerability, not a security capital.
- It certainly shook the confidence of Gulf monarchies that American bases in the region would be attacked. Not only has Washington not proven to be an optimal shield, but under the leadership of the most reckless president in history, the US has also handed the Gulf monarchies troubled times. Surely after this war passes, when the process will only accelerate, the Gulf states will reassess their relationship with America. At the same time, they will ask themselves important questions about the meaning of a tense relationship or a potentially tense relationship with Israel. Certainly, the sheikhs are increasingly frustrated today by the fact that Israel stands out as the big winner (only in the short term, however) of Donald Trump’s recklessness, while the skyscrapers and refineries in the Gulf catch fire.
Repeatedly, Donald Trump has wanted to show his superiority over his opponents by declaring them downright “stupid“. He spoke in these terms about Joe Biden, he also used the insult against Kamala Harris. At the same time, he spoke of himself as an individual with a “high IQ”.
The Iranian case, however, proved that things were just the opposite.
Iran warns Romania against allowing US to use bases for operations
