The outcome of the Iran crisis will hinge to a certain degree on what happens between Washington and NATO. Iran’s dictatorship has made a calculated bet that since it cannot defeat the United States (or even Israel) militarily, it might outlast a divided West — exploiting the deep mistrust between Trump and America’s traditional allies to fracture the response, dilute the pressure, and ultimately force terms.
It is difficult for reasonable persons to find themselves in any way aligned with Trump, or for that matter with the Putin disciple who answers to the name Netanyahu. But the Iranians are not budging and talks are stalled, and if the Iranian regime’s bet proves correct, the implications will stretch far beyond the Strait of Hormuz and will be bigger than this duo. It will signal that maritime trade is no longer safe, that the West is no longer an alliance, and that the regime can regroup to continue to make life for Iranians dangerous and miserable while further menacing to its region. And this simply cannot be.
Therefore it is urgent that Tehran be confronted with a different reality from the one that has brought us to this point. Trump and NATO must make up immediately, and it cannot be unilateral. For two things must happen.
The European nations – a.k.a. the NATO allies – must forgive Trump his odiousness, the fact that he threatened to attack Denmark in order to grab Greenland, that he has insulted and demeaned them, and that he did not consult them on the Iran war. Mainly, they need to stop being craven cowards afraid of Muslim minorities and shrieking “progressives” who are apologists for jihadism.
Trump needs to walk back everything he said and immediately cease his break with NATO and Europe, stop interfering in European elections in favor of far-right groups that would break up the EU, and understand that NATO’s Article V does not mean “you must join my war” but rather “you must defend me if I’m attacked.” He should apologize, basically – which is about as easy to bring about as persuading a jihadist to be generous and calm.
Not easy at all, but that is what’s needed, and here’s what should follow.
At that point Iran should be confronted with a choice: open up the Strait of Hormuz immediately, for it is not yours even if you border it, cease all claims on charging blackmail for allowing transit, and negotiate in good faith on America’s demands, which are also NATO’s demands. If you don’t open up the strait, you will be in an effective state of war with NATO, even if at the moment there is a ceasefire. And if you don’t negotiate in good faith, you might still find yourself at war with NATO. There is basically no other way.
This would rid the Iranians of the sense that the rupture in the West places them in some clever advantage. And it would open up possibilities of new cooperation to put the squeeze on the regime. Mainly, the Europeans would no longer have to go around pretending that at some unclear point they will set about opening up the strait without American help. And it would end any notion of acquiescence to such shakedowns.
It is an ugly situation, but it is one that was set I motion when Iran was allowed to embark upon this ruinous path in 1979. Ever since the hostage crisis which began that year and only ended in 1981, it was should probably have been clear that it will end in confrontation.
It is unfortunate that the Western side of that confrontation is led by a US president as corrupt, absurd, destructive, mendacious, intemperate and incoherent as Trump – in an alliance with Netanyahu, who is currently the biggest danger to Israel’s survival as a nation, to boot. But that’s how it happened; more normative presidents, perhaps, might not have had the courage. Indeed they did not: Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with the regime did forestall the nukes, but at the cost of allowing Iran to harm the region all it wanted, and to continue to crush its own people. I favored it, but it was a deal with the devil to be sure.
Meanwhile, we will hear that the blockade is having an effect on the regime, and that the rest of the world must simply show resolve and wait for it to break – without restarting the war. It requires a leap of faith, and meanwhile the West and the world will need to absorb some pain – which is why the price Trump must pay, described above, is somewhat high.
When authoritarian systems are struck hard, they do not necessarily collapse but consolidate. In Iran’s case, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively tightened its grip, stepping into the vacuum created by the decapitation of more formal political leadership. It may be fair to describe the situation as a coup against the political echelon of the regime by the IRGC. What looked, in the first days, like the possible beginning of the end has instead hardened into something more familiar: a wounded but defiant regime, doubling down. Which brings us to the blockade.
The effort to seal off Iran’s ports is not designed to produce an immediate collapse. It is something more methodical: a slow choke. By targeting maritime trade — upon which the overwhelming majority of Iran’s commerce depends — the blockade aims to change the regime’s calculus over time. Iran is already losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in foregone oil exports and disrupted trade. But the more significant effect is cumulative.
Prices will creep upward, then jump. The currency will weaken, eroding purchasing power. Imported goods — from industrial inputs to pharmaceuticals — will become scarcer and more expensive. Families will adjust quietly: less meat, more staples; fewer luxuries, more substitutions. Hospitals will struggle with intermittent shortages of specialized drugs. Businesses will not collapse overnight, but they will contract — freezing hiring, scaling back operations, slowly shedding capacity. Life will become more expensive, more constrained, and more uncertain.
Iran has lived under sanctions before; its population is resilient. But over time, the accumulation of pressures may bring about the crack that is needed, probably in the context of renewed protests. Authoritarian systems can appear monolithic until they are not – and in the aftermath of rupture you can hardly believe they lasted as long as they did, without the slightest shred of legitimacy. In any case, it should have been clear all along that a coup driven by protests is the only way to bring down the regime, since no one wants to occupy Iran.
So this is an effort to introduce new information. Show the regime that its current path leads not to stalemate, but to suffocation – and that the West is again united.
And herein lies the key. Without a credible, unified front, the signal to Tehran is muddled. The regime sees opportunity. Rapprochement is urgent. It will require Trump to stop being Trump for a while. And for the Europeans to get over themselves a little.
Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon continues to be dice — and yet, in another unbelievable development, Trump is actually doing something useful there are well in bashing heads and getting the governments of Israel and Lebanon to talk. It’s clear they are aligned on the need to get rid of Hezbollah. Here, too, the Europeans could be useful is they lined up behind the initiative and basically told Lebanon: “What help do you need?” Simply pandering by condemning Israel is doing Lebanon, that deserves to be freed of this militia, no favors. Not one single European country would accept Hezbollah in its midst — or arrayed, weapons brandished, along its borders. You cannot run away from every fight.
