With the Winter holidays approaching, chocolate will be part of the gifts that people will find in their boots or under the tree this month. But this year, it will be more expensive for St. Nicholas and Santa to bring it.
While cocoa prices have dropped sharply in 2025, on global markets, after several years of record highs, Romanian consumers still haven’t felt much relief on store shelves, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
Heading into the sweets shopping spree for Saint Nick at the end of this week and later for Christmas, when sales of sweets usually spike, the consumer will fill their shopping basket with still pricey chocolate, despite the drop in cocoa prices on global exchanges. According to the latest Trends in economic activity report, in the retail sector, 45.9% of the managers expect a continuation of the increase in prices, while only 1.6% estimate that these will decrease between November and January.
According to the National Statistics Institute, cocoa and coffee prices in Romania in October have risen by about 21% and the sugar, honey, and sweets prices by 13% over the past year. Also, the Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for cocoa and powdered chocolate reached 179.61 points in October 2025, the highest level since 2015, according to Eurostat.
Cocoa prices have dropped sharply in 2025 after several years of record highs, and the price of the dark luxury commodity now sits around 5,300 USD per ton, 13% lower compared with last month and 54% down from the same time last year. Lower raw-material prices suggest that pressure on producers and retailers is easing. But in reality, delays in supply chains mean the price drops haven’t filtered through to stores yet.
Going into 2026, there are several chocolate confectionery trends that the industry is expecting to develop. According to the latest edition of the Tax Free World Association (TFWA) 2025 show, the industry focus will be on premiumization, innovation, and bold taste for next year. Pistachio was a major trend in 2025 with the Dubai chocolate, and most likely will continue strong in 2026 too. But the surprise taste is a punchy, sour one that will be highlighted with yuzu and calamansi – citrus-like fruits cultivated in Asia – and tamarind, who taste like a mix of tangy lemon and sweet caramel.
Another trend is premiumisation – where consumers are looking for products that offer genuine or perceived added value and are willing to pay more for it – with refined flavors, elegant packaging, and exclusive and limited editions, appealing to consumers seeking premium gifting options. According to the TFWA, sweets continue to dominate the gifting segment and companies like Mars, Lindt and Mondelez were stepping up with premium packaging or collectible editions.
Next year seems to be an interesting one for the chocolate lovers, but the prices on the shelves might still be a concern for the Romanians as they are preparing for a new wave of increased taxes starting from January 2026.
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