Three days before the first round of Romania’s presidential elections, we have two polls that present the following scenarios:
- Marcel Ciolacu – 24.4%
- George Simion -16.2%
- Nicolae Ciucă- 15.6%
- Elena Lasconi – 12.7% (Source: INSOMAR)
- Marcel Ciolacu 24.3%
- George Simion 15.4%
- Elena Lasconi 15.3%
- Nicolae Ciucă 12.1% (Source: AtlasIntel)
However imperfect the two polls are, they are still relevant and the message is clear: It is mandatory that one of the two candidates– Elena Lasconi or Nicolae Ciucă – quit the race for the Cotroceni presidential Palace, to benefit the other. It is unacceptable to risk doing nothing, thereby guaranteeing neither one will qualify for the second round.
It would be logical for Elena Lasconi to step back, considering both her extreme amateurism on major issues and in key files, as well as the relative weakness of her own party (I have written about this before – HERE and HERE). Even if – as one of the polls indicates, Lasconi is two or three percentage points ahead of Ciucă, this is not a good enough argument to stay in the race at all costs.
I repeat: on the one hand, not all polls present Elena Lasconi as polling more than Nicolae Ciucă, and on the other hand, Elena Lasconi has neither the experience nor the knowledge that Nicolae Ciucă has. In fact, the most ardent supporter of Elena Lasconi Traian Basescu, highlighted this very point two months ago: “If I were to choose from all of them, it is clear that the most qualified for the position of president is Ciucă. As far as experience goes…. It is clear that he is the best.” It couldn’t be clearer, more categorical than that. In the time that has elapsed since Basescu’s statement, Ciucă’s experience at the highest state levels has only increased, and Elena Lasconi’s lack of experience has become more evident by the day.
It is true, however, that for Elena Lasconi to withdraw and for Nicolae Ciucă to win the support of her and her party, the PNL (National Liberal Party) needs to make some effort. In other words, it is up to the Liberals to convince Lasconi and the USR with an offer they can’t refuse, together with credible guarantees that everything that they promise will be done.
In the end, Lasconi herself has to make a decision with serious personal implications and she has to convince her party that it’s the right one, as the entire party asset and its electorate are both very hostile to the PNL.
Therefore, it is necessary for the PNL to pay for and authentically reward Elena Lasconi’s possible withdrawal and guarantee her support for Nicolae Ciucă.
The above scenario can be put into practice even on the very last day.
Everything else is noise.
Of course, there is another scenario in which Elena Lasconi and USR will consider that, it’s the Liberals who have to give up.
So, if Lasconi can’t be convinced to step back, Ciucă and PNL should move like a chess grandmaster, announcing at the very last minute that they will make the supreme sacrifice; that Nicolae Ciucă is renouncing his candidacy and will support Elena Lasconi.
The Liberals can only gain from such a gesture, both politically and in terms of credibility. And the soldier and his party will have shown, in this way, the supreme proof that they are really in ‘the service of the country.’
The Liberals will lose the presidency, it is true, but they can gain influence over the future president (because, suddenly, Elena Lasconi’s chances of becoming Romania’s next president would increase significantly). Then, the Liberals will win the precious moral high ground in the eyes of the general public, and in the eyes of international partners. And last but not least, with such a gesture, they will go down in history.
In any case, if Lasconi and Ciucă do not get along, each choosing to remain in the race, the risk that neither will become president seems close to 100% at this moment, but – attentionl! – without the other advantages that would come from the scenario of a heroic, well-staged retreat, announced at the very last moment, just when no one hoped for anything positive.
Saturday night, in prime time, would probably be the best time to ignite such an earthquake. In the end, Traian Basescu also won the fight for Cotroceni with an earthquake and, it wasn’t easy for him either.
PNL must understand very clearly that there is is no good deal for Nicolae Ciucă in continuing the race if Elena Lasconi refuses to withdraw. Indeed, there are enough indications that PNL has much more to lose than USR from a situation in which the votes of the center-right will be squandered.
It’s easy to understand this reasoning, I’m certain of that, but it’s a difficult pill to swallow and hard to digest for those concerned.
A personal sacrifice, which results in clear political dividends, depends on avoiding a second round between Джордж Симион и Марсель Чолаку…
… Sorry for using the Cyrillic alphabet (but the two are them are bedfellows), one George Simion and Marcel Ciolacu.
