The opposition Save Romania Union has finally taken the strategic step of distancing itself from its official presidential candidate, Elena Lasconi, and reorienting itself towards the independent Nicușor Dan.
While commendable in itself, this step is not without its downsides and gloomy variables. And this, first of all, because USR inexplicably distanced itself from Elena Lasconi rather late. Again, irrefutable proof of immaturity and political indecision – just the latest example.
It had long become obvious, even to observers outside the party, that Lasconi was living in her own world and would not voluntarily renounce her candidacy. Despite toying with the national interest, the pettiness of vanity and the temptations of self-interest have always been closer to her skin than even her shirt.
Elena Lasconi was seduced by the promise of power something her party should have anticipated, taking note of this cruel reality and “cancelling” her from the moment Nicușor Dan announced he would stand for president.
The sheer amount of time that was wasted by the inexplicable inaction of the USR has the potential for hidden and painful costs on the first Sunday of the polls – for the USR, for its new candidate, but especially for the future of Romania.
Of course, the damage created so far can still be diminished in the remaining three weeks of campaigning, but for this, the USR needs to mobilize and be articulate and efficient like never before. Nicușor Dan’s electoral performance must be without reproach. These are the two conditions that are not quite impossible to satisfy, but will be damn difficult to meet.
The difficulties will partially arise from the fact that Elena Lasconi, judging by her messages on the eve and on the day of the “sacrifice”, will turn into a more ferocious enemy of Nicușor Dan than his opponents.
In addition, given the opportunity that has arisen, Nicușor Dan’s opponents have no reason not to get involved in this fratricidal war in the USR – and it will not be difficult for them to find formulas to effectively stimulate Lasconi to constantly attack Dan’s jugular.
I don’t want to be misunderstood: it’s good that at least now USR has taken the step that should have been taken, but it’s bad that it has taken this long.
A wave of hope can come from the extraordinary turmoil that (nationalist party) AUR is simultaneously going through.
One of the founders of the party, Claudiu Tarziu, announced his departure from the party he once co-chaired with George Simion. At the same time, Tarziu announced that he will form another party.
News of the split in the sovereignist-Putin camp is promising, but any celebration is premature because it remains difficult to assess the impact of Tarziu’s departure may have, in just three weeks, on AUR-Georgescu voters.
And, in any case, for those Romanians who wants a more civilized and truly European country, the danger of (ex Prime Minister Victor) Ponta looms large.
If, by a miracle, Tarziu will prove incredibly effective in undermining Simion’s momentum, this does not mean that that the votes diverted from the latter will still go to Victor Ponta.
In the best case, scenario a Prince Charming efficiency of Claudiu Tarziu’’s departure from AUR can remove the worst scenario – the one in which the second round would be disputed by two profoundly Trumpist-Putinist finalists, Ponta & Simion.
But for now, all these are calculations are in the realm of speculation.
Finally, it needs to be emphasized once more, ore than ever, the boundlessness of the irrational, in Elena Lasconi’s case.
Perhaps the most shocking clue is the serenity with which, after Lasconi was ousted she announced that she would continue her campaign even if she ran out of money, had no communication infrastructure and no logistics and human resources to support her campaign
But Elena Lasconi’s collapse into the abyss of the irrational had long been installed and was more and more obvious with each speech, every hasty statement, post on social media: her increasingly pronounced paranoia, lashing out at Nicușor Dan and her growing populism increasingly close in style to that of AUR as well as a bizarre messianism that seemed to echo Călin Georgescu.
Nothing that Elena Lasconi has done in recent months has been compatible with the specter created by the party she (still) leads.
And before this was finally admitted by the party, the rupture between Lasconi and USR became visible where it matters most – at the grassroots, in the attitude of the USR voters.
It is not for nothing that Lasconi is so low in all the polls, even if, like an old-school politruk, she has also acquired the cunning to believe or not in the polls depending on how favorable or unfavorable the poll figures are.
Even if it is already late, extremely late, Elena Lasconi still has a small window of opportunity to surrender in a relatively dignified manner, admitting that she made a mistake and agreeing to withdraw from the presidential race and from the USR leadership.
In the end, she hasn’t lost everything yet – she has to defend and continue a mayoral mandate and, who knows, in time, depending on her performance in the years to come, she could return to big politics.
However, if she chooses to continue flirting with the irrational, as she seems determined at this moment, Elena Lasconi will also be left without the little she could cling to in order to be able to count.
Dispatch from Romania: “Eyebrow” the Envoy and a Nation on the Brink
