After Parliament voted to dismiss the Ilie Bolojan government, Romania’s political parties had the following reactions:
The Social Democrats (PSD) wanted the old coalition back without Bolojan as prime minister; The ethnic Hungarians (UDMR) wanted the old coalition back and ruled out governing with the AUR nationalists; the Liberals and USR said they would go into opposition. AUR said that was ready to enter government, but not under any conditions (from the comfortable position in which it finds itself, the smartest game is “all or nothing” for the extremists).
President Nicușor Dan said he ruled out a minority government and a government with AUR; he wants a pro-Western cabinet (a change of nuance from the idea of a pro-European government, first noted by G4Media.ro).
It should also be noted that, in the background, some test ideas were floated such as a technocratic prime minister (mainly from the PSD).
It wasn’t a widely supported formula, however, because it would be a weak government. Romania experimented with this before, but without much success.
Following informal consultations with the president, party positions began to change: for example, PSD and the Hungarians no longer rule out a minority government. On the other hand, the Liberals and USR’s positions have only hardened and they have even signed a collaboration agreement in this area. Ilie Bolojan told Digi24 on Monday that his Liberals and the USR remain open to delivering a government, if the PSD fails. Such a scenario would be hard for PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu and by Nicușor Dan to accept after they backed the no-confidence motion. It’s in their interest to avoid such humiliation.
Worth noting is that Liberal Senate speaker Mircea Abrudean reinforced the Liberals’ position and added it would be an opportunity to reform the party even through a special congress. He also made a reference (not accidentally) to colleagues who, following the motion, declared they had “different positions from the party leadership.” Bolojan also spoke about reforming the party on Monday evening on Digi24.
The idea of Ilie Bolojan returning as prime minister has also come back into the picture.
The idea of “Bolojan 2” is worth looking at as it would increase the pressure on the head of state and the PSD, and would also keep the door open to a theoretical return of the Liberals to government, from an offensive not defensive position.
But at this moment, the most popular scenario is a PSD minority government without AUR.
The PSD has chances if getting the Hungarians on board if AUR is out we well as the rest of the national minorities seats (UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor said he was open to this even before the first round of consultations).
This is what I proposed and the only rational solution HERE and HERE) in the current context. It would also be the most politically expensive solution for the PSD and for President Nicușor Dan, but also a poor but benign solution, compared to other variants.
Unfortunately, Romania will suffer from a PSD government installed prematurely. The PSD would supposed to take the rotating position of prime minister in the spring of 2027. By 2027, the government would have had enough time to get some much-needed reforms up and running.
With a PSD heading the government in the spring of 2026, reforms are less certain.
The good news is that with the PSD shepherding a minority government, they will be easier to squeeze by the opposition including street protests.
Therefore, a PSD that came to power prematurely will be a handicap in terms of reforms, but it will also have less room for maneuver than usual in terms of squandering public assets.
In government, but at the same time lacking the full powers of a government, the PSD risks internal tensions generated by the inevitable frustration of its barons and business clientele that rely on public money.
The foreseeable frustrations will probably fuel various temptations – from an internal coup to getting closer to AUR.
Either way, if we get a minority PSD government, the rest of 2026 and 2027 will be extremely interesting and the electoral year 2028 could be even dramatic for the PSD.
If President Nicușor Dan to really did his job, he should quickly and decisively act in to deliver the lame formula of a minority PSD government.
Of course, the president will lose and if he does, he will lose if he doesn’t.
For Nicușor Dan, the issue is no longer posed in positive terms, only in negative terms.
Because he placed himself in the situation where he only has minimal emergency exits, especially after the way he encouraged anti-Bolojan PSD hostility, and his indecent and politically costly, lack of protection of the prime minister which was so obvious in the last six months.
As for Nicușor Dan, it can be concluded that he made too many mistakes, too quickly and on too many levels – from actions and messages in domestic policy, to actions and messages in foreign policy.
His presidential path will probably be more difficult from now on – because he has lost steadfast allies (on the center-right political scene and on the street), the friends he cultivated along the way are not reliable and weakened (the PSD and Grindeanu), and the extremists from AUR have the wind in their sails, while extremists like Diana Șoșoaca are threatening the president with impeachment (probably egged on by some foreign interests).
This is not bad luck, but implausibly bad calculation.
- PS: If, at the end of the negotiations, there really is a PSD minority government and this government lasts until the 2028 parliamentary elections, Dan’s legacy will suffer: he will be the president who offered to the millions who voted for him a PSD government for far longer than they imagined.
- If there is a minority PSD government, but it falls before 2028, his presidency will be one marked by a series of political crises beyond what is considered bearable by the millions who voted for him in the spring of 2025.
- In both situations, the balance would of course be lamentable
